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According to the New York Fed's recession model, there is a 29% probability that the U.S. will enter a recession by the end of 2025. This is a dramatic decline compared to the elevated ...
This recession was one of the main causes of the American Civil War, which would begin in 1861 and end in 1865. This is the earliest recession to which the NBER assigns specific months (rather than years) for the peak and trough. [6] [8] [21] 1860–1861 recession October 1860 – June 1861 8 months 1 year 10 months −14.5% —
The United States exited recession in late 1949, and another robust expansion began. This expansion coincided with the Korean War, after which the Federal Reserve initiated more restrictive monetary policy. The slowdown in economic activity led to the recession of 1953, bringing an end to nearly four years of expansion. May 1954– Aug 1957 39 ...
Any reasonable read of the data points to a clear cooling of the US economy. Sure, GDP growth in 2024 came in at a respectable 2.5%, but that's down from 3% in 2023.
In a CNBC interview at the end of July 2008, Alan Greenspan said he believed the U.S. was not yet in a recession, but that it could enter one due to a global economic slowdown. [27] A study released by Moody's found two-thirds of the 381 largest metropolitan areas in the United States were in a recession. The study also said 28 states were in ...
Given high levels of inflation and rising rates — which has sent the 30-year mortgage ballooning to 5% — many economists are warning of an impending recession by sometime in 2023.
The NBER officially calls U.S. recessions, and data from Bank of America shows why this group won't be in a rush to declare the U.S. economy in recession.
In its National Economic Report of Bermuda for 2012, the Bermudan Ministry of Finance expects GDP will decline by 0% to 1.5% in 2013 but five years of recession will end with "modest growth in 2014". GDP is thought to have contracted by 1.75% to 2.25% in 2012 after a decline of 2.8% in 2011. [171] February 22, 2013: United Kingdom