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[14] [15] It would have been incorrect, and an example of prosecutor's fallacy, to rely solely on the "1 in 400" figure to deduce that a given person matching the sample would be likely to be the culprit. Frequency tree of 100 000 battered American women showing the base rate fallacy made by the defense in the O. J. Simpson murder trial
A base rate is a phenomenon's basic rate of incidence. The base rate fallacy describes how people do not take the base rate of an event into account when solving probability problems. [12] This was explicitly tested by Dawes, Mirels, Gold and Donahue (1993) who had people judge both the base rate of people who had a particular personality trait ...
For example, if the control group, using no treatment at all, had their own base rate of 1/20 recoveries within 1 day and a treatment had a 1/100 base rate of recovery within 1 day, we see that the treatment actively decreases the recovery. The base rate is an important concept in statistical inference, particularly in Bayesian statistics. [2]
Thus, people can overestimate the likelihood that something has a very rare property, or underestimate the likelihood of a very common property. This is called the base rate fallacy. Representativeness explains this and several other ways in which human judgments break the laws of probability. [14]
For example, for certain types of questions, answers that people rate as "99% certain" turn out to be wrong 40% of the time. [5] [43] [44] [45] Planning fallacy, the tendency for people to underestimate the time it will take them to complete a given task. [46]
Exemplification theory is a simple combination of these heuristics. It posits that since exemplars come to mind more easily than base-rates when accessing information, available exemplars will dominate base-rate information when making judgments of event populations. [6] Behavioral intentions are the direct determinants of behaviors. [7]
The tug of war between BlackRock and FDIC is the latest example of rising D.C. scrutiny of BlackRock, which oversees $11 trillion in assets. For years, the financial giant has been a target of GOP ...
Naturalistic fallacy fallacy is a type of argument from fallacy. Straw man fallacy – refuting an argument different from the one actually under discussion, while not recognizing or acknowledging the distinction. [110] Texas sharpshooter fallacy – improperly asserting a cause to explain a cluster of data. [111]