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The spread between 2 and 10-year Treasuries has been inverted since last July. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 3.6 basis ...
It has been updated three times since, with the current version referred to as the STLFSI4. STLFSI3 used the past 90-day average backward looking secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) in two spreads, whereas the latest version uses the 90-day forward looking SOFR [1] [2] [3] [4]
However the 10-year vs 3-month portion did not invert until March 22, 2019 and it reverted to a positive slope by April 1, 2019 (i.e. only 8 days later). [25] [26] The month average of the 10-year vs 3-month (bond equivalent yield) difference reached zero basis points in May 2019. Both March and April 2019 had month-average spreads greater than ...
The 10-year yield hit 2.73%, its highest since March 2019, and the yield on 10-year inflation-protection securities was within 15 basis points of turning positive for the first time in over two years.
The target rate remained at 5.25% for over a year, until the Federal Reserve began lowering rates in September 2007. The last cycle of easing monetary policy through the rate was conducted from September 2007 to December 2008 as the target rate fell from 5.25% to a range of 0.00–0.25%.
Notably, Harvey's worked actually focused on the spread between the 3-month Treasury bill and the 10-year Treasury note as the most potent recession indicator, not the now-popular 2-year/10-year ...
The economic data published on FRED are widely reported in the media and play a key role in financial markets. In a 2012 Business Insider article titled "The Most Amazing Economics Website in the World", Joe Weisenthal quoted Paul Krugman as saying: "I think just about everyone doing short-order research — trying to make sense of economic issues in more or less real time — has become a ...
24-month (2 year) CD. 1.52%. 1.48%. Up 4 basis points. 36-month (3 year) CD. 1.35%. 1.37%. ... The difference is called a spread, and it’s what banks rely on to make money. Unlike a traditional ...