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Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a systematic and comprehensive methodology to evaluate risks associated with a complex engineered technological entity (such as an airliner or a nuclear power plant) or the effects of stressors on the environment (probabilistic environmental risk assessment, or PERA).
Risk management tools help address uncertainty by identifying risks, generating metrics, setting parameters, prioritizing issues, developing responses, and tracking risks. [1] Without the use of these tools, techniques, documentation, and information systems, it can be challenging to effectively monitor these activities.
Risk is the lack of certainty about the outcome of making a particular choice. Statistically, the level of downside risk can be calculated as the product of the probability that harm occurs (e.g., that an accident happens) multiplied by the severity of that harm (i.e., the average amount of harm or more conservatively the maximum credible amount of harm).
In project management, risk assessment is an integral part of the risk management plan, studying the probability, the impact, and the effect of every known risk on the project, as well as the corrective action to take should an incident be implied by a risk occur. [40]
Example of risk assessment: A NASA model showing areas at high risk from impact for the International Space Station. Risk management is the identification, evaluation, and prioritization of risks, [1] followed by the minimization, monitoring, and control of the impact or probability of those risks occurring. [2]
Second-generation techniques are more theoretical in their assessment and quantification of errors, addressing, rather, the schematic’s situational or interactive elements. HRA techniques are utilized for various applications in a range of disciplines and industries including healthcare, engineering, nuclear power, transportation, and business.
Using Monte Carlo simulation, the project manager can apply different probabilities for various risk factors that affect a project component. The probability of occurrence can vary from 0% to 100% chance of occurrence. The impact of risk is entered into the simulation model along with the probability of occurrence.
[5] [8] The more complex risk analysis tools of fault tree analysis, event tree analysis use the same principle: Things go wrong, there is a reason for that and a result too, with the result generating the adverse consequences. The bow-tie diagram introduces the concept of a central energy-based event (the "bow tie knot") in which the damaging ...