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Similarly, he predicted in 2010 that Barack Obama would win re-election in 2012, a prediction made when Obama's job approval ratings were below 50 percent. [70] When the keys model was first developed, it was for predicting the national popular vote. [71] In 1999, Lichtman predicted a win for Al Gore in 2000, and Gore did win the popular vote. [72]
Biden's strongest base of support was the Philadelphia metro area. In the city of Philadelphia itself, Biden won by 63.4%, a weaker win than Hillary Clinton's 66.9% margin in the city in 2016, but still better than Kerry's 61.1% margin in 2004 or Gore's 62.0% margin in 2000. [204]
Most election predictors for the 2020 United States presidential election used: Tossup: No advantage; Tilt: Advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean" Lean: Slight advantage; Likely: Significant, but surmountable, advantage (highest rating given by CBS News and NPR) Safe or solid: Near-certain chance of victory
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No president wants to give up the power and prestige that comes with the office after only one term, and Joe Biden is no exception. One theme: Primary battles are a sign of whether a president ...
Key to Biden's victory were his wins in the Democratic-leaning Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which Trump narrowly carried in 2016 and whose combined 46 electoral votes were enough to swing the election to either candidate. Biden also became the first Democrat to win a presidential election in Georgia since 1992 and ...
While on a long drive home with my wife the day after the election, I started to list for her the reasons why Joe Biden becoming president in 2020 was ultimately the best possible outcome for ...
The following graph depicts the standing of each candidate in the poll aggregators from September 2019 to November 2020. Former Vice President Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, had an average polling lead of 7.9 percentage points over incumbent President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee.