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In not-breaking news, the 2024 race for the White House appears very close.Tellingly, 538’s latest presidential election forecast gives Vice President Kamala Harris the narrowest of advantages ...
Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
NEW YORK - President-elect Donald Trump won the Nov. 5th election but he isn’t president yet. The next steps to confirm his electoral college victory include 538 electors gathering in all 50 ...
The margin of victory in a presidential election is the difference between the number of Electoral College votes garnered by the candidate with an absolute majority of electoral votes (since 1964, it has been 270 out of 538) and the number received by the second place candidate (currently in the range of 2 to 538, a margin of one vote is only possible with an odd total number of electors or a ...
Now, 538’s forecast assumes that electoral votes will go to the candidate who has won them based on the election results — but that’s not a 100-percent given.
Several sites have created election forecast models to gauge how likely it is for either candidate to reach the 270 electoral college votes to win. Forecasts by 538 and Decision Desk HQ/The Hill ...
The number of electoral votes, out of 538, allocated to each state and the District of Columbia for presidential elections held in 2024 and to be held in 2028 based on the 2020 census. Every jurisdiction is entitled to at least 3.
But because of its winner-take-all nature, the Electoral College isn't a good measure of closeness. Imagine an election where one candidate wins every state and district 50.1 percent to 49.9 percent.