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The 2021 Canadian federal election, held on September 20, 2021, saw only minor changes from the preceding 2019 election. [1] The incumbent Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, did not win the popular vote and failed to win enough seats to gain a parliamentary majority, winning only a plurality of seats and retaining its status as a minority government.
In 2020 and 2024, the site produced projections for the 2020 United States presidential election and the 2024 United States presidential election. [2] [3] In 2025, the site gives the Conservative Party of Canada a >99% chance to win the 2025 Canadian federal election. [4] Fournier called the 2024 Toronto—St. Paul's federal by-election a ...
Canadian Federal Election, 2019 - Parties, Leaders, Seats Won and Popular Vote Party Leaders Seats Won Popular Vote Liberal: Justin Trudeau 1: 157: 33.1% Conservative: Andrew Scheer 2: 121: 34.4% Bloc Québécois: Yves-François Blanchet: 32: 7.7% New Democratic Party: Jagmeet Singh: 24: 15.9% Green: Elizabeth May: 3: 6.5% Independent: 1: 0.4% ...
If 170 opposition legislators vote against the Liberals, the government would fall before its term expires at the end of October 2025, forcing an early general election.
Trudeau has been forced out by members of his own party, not because he lost an election (the American equivalent would be the unseating of then-Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy in 2023).
The next federal election must be held by October 2025 and a range of polls show the Liberals, who have been in power since November 2015, would lose badly to the Conservatives.
In October, Trudeau faced a caucus revolt when 24 Liberal MPs signed a letter demanding his resignation. However, Trudeau was defiant and unequivocal in his plans to lead the party in the next election. The dissident MPs continued to push for a caucus vote on Trudeau's leadership, though there is no formal mechanism in the party to force one. [16]
Trudeau, who insists he will lead the party into an election that must be held by the end of October 2025, suggested voters on Monday would be drawn to vote by anger over elevated prices and a ...