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The forward exchange rate depends on three known variables: the spot exchange rate, the domestic interest rate, and the foreign interest rate. This effectively means that the forward rate is the price of a forward contract, which derives its value from the pricing of spot contracts and the addition of information on available interest rates.
The forward rate is the future yield on a bond. It is calculated using the yield curve . For example, the yield on a three-month Treasury bill six months from now is a forward rate .
The reason for the change is that, post-crisis, the overnight rate is the rate paid on the collateral (variation margin) posted by counterparties on most CSAs. The forward values of the overnight rate can be read from the overnight index swap curve. "OIS-discounting" is now standard, and is sometimes, referred to as "CSA-discounting".
The forward curve is a function graph in finance that defines the prices at which a contract for future delivery or payment can be concluded today. For example, a futures contract forward curve is prices being plotted as a function of the amount of time between now and the expiry date of the futures contract (with the spot price being the price at time zero).
For a trade with a time to expiry of v days, the expiry date is the day v days ahead of the horizon date (unless it is a weekend or 1 January, in which case the date is rolled forward to a weekday) and for a trade with time to expiry of x weeks, the expiry date is the day 7x days ahead of the horizon date (with the same conditions as above).
The Smith–Wilson method is a method for extrapolating forward rates. It is recommended by EIOPA to extrapolate interest rates. It was introduced in 2000 by A. Smith and T. Wilson for Bacon & Woodrow .
Suppose that is the risk-free interest rate to expiry of the domestic currency and is the foreign currency risk-free interest rate (where domestic currency is the currency in which we obtain the value of the option; the formula also requires that FX rates – both strike and current spot be quoted in terms of "units of domestic currency per ...
When the volatility and drift of the instantaneous forward rate are assumed to be deterministic, this is known as the Gaussian Heath–Jarrow–Morton (HJM) model of forward rates. [ 1 ] : 394 For direct modeling of simple forward rates the Brace–Gatarek–Musiela model represents an example.