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In probability theory and statistics, the empirical probability, relative frequency, or experimental probability of an event is the ratio of the number of outcomes in which a specified event occurs to the total number of trials, [1] i.e. by means not of a theoretical sample space but of an actual experiment.
This is the core conception of probability in the frequentist interpretation. A claim of the frequentist approach is that, as the number of trials increases, the change in the relative frequency will diminish. Hence, one can view a probability as the limiting value of the corresponding relative frequencies.
This image illustrates the convergence of relative frequencies to their theoretical probabilities. The probability of picking a red ball from a sack is 0.4 and black ball is 0.6. The left plot shows the relative frequency of picking a black ball, and the right plot shows the relative frequency of picking a red ball, both over 10,000 trials.
Frequentists posit that the probability of an event is its relative frequency over time, [1] (3.4) i.e., its relative frequency of occurrence after repeating a process a large number of times under similar conditions. This is also known as aleatory probability.
Under the frequency interpretation of probability, it is assumed that as the length of a series of trials increases without bound, the fraction of experiments in which a given event occurs will approach a fixed value, known as the limiting relative frequency. [7] [8] This interpretation is often contrasted with Bayesian probability.
Probability is the branch of mathematics and statistics concerning events and numerical descriptions of how likely they are to occur. The probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1; the larger the probability, the more likely an event is to occur. [note 1] [1] [2] This number is often expressed as a percentage (%), ranging from 0% to ...
The propensity theory of probability is a probability interpretation in which the probability is thought of as a physical propensity, disposition, or tendency of a given type of situation to yield an outcome of a certain kind, or to yield a long-run relative frequency of such an outcome. [1]
Frequency distribution: a table that displays the frequency of various outcomes in a sample. Relative frequency distribution: a frequency distribution where each value has been divided (normalized) by a number of outcomes in a sample (i.e. sample size). Categorical distribution: for discrete random variables with a finite set of values.