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A calculus of voting represents a hypothesized decision-making process. These models are used in political science in an attempt to capture the relative importance of various factors influencing an elector to vote (or not vote) in a particular way.
Electoral geography is the analysis of the methods, the behavior, and the results of elections in the context of geographic space and using geographical techniques. Specifically, it is an examination of the dual interaction in which geographical affect the political decisions, and the geographical structure of the election system affects ...
Electoral Calculus is a political consultancy and pollster, known for its political forecasting website that attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. It uses MRP (Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification) to combine national factors and local demographics.
These forecasts are derived from theories and empirical evidence about what matters to voters when they make electoral choices. The forecast models typically rely on a few predictors in highly aggregated form, with an emphasis on phenomena that change in the short-run, such as the state of the economy, so as to offer maximum leverage for ...
According to analysis carried out in October 2021 by electoral modelling consultancy Electoral Calculus, a total of 28 constituencies would disappear (i.e. be broken up and not form the larger part of any proposed seats), offset by 28 wholly new constituencies (proposed seats which do not contain the larger part of any pre-existing seat). If ...
Examples of subjects where election science methods are applied include gerrymandering, electoral fraud, suffrage, and voter registration. There is an academic conference [4] dedicated to the study of election science and the Southern Political Science Association has a sub-conference for the study of election science. [5]
The Electoral College map — which has long instilled bipartisan anxiety on election night in the U.S. — is eliciting more laughs than groans in the lead-up to November.
Electoral Calculus characterises the proposed seat as "Strong Right", with right-wing economic and social views, high home ownership levels and strong support for Brexit. [7] The seat was a target seat, in the 2024 general election, for the Green Party [8] who won half of the council wards in the seat in the 2023 local elections.