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The origin of the phrase "Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is unclear, but Mark Twain attributed it to Benjamin Disraeli [1] "Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of statistics to bolster weak arguments, "one of the best, and best-known" critiques of applied statistics. [2]
In a non-statistical sense, the term "prediction" is often used to refer to an informed guess or opinion.. A prediction of this kind might be informed by a predicting person's abductive reasoning, inductive reasoning, deductive reasoning, and experience; and may be useful—if the predicting person is a knowledgeable person in the field.
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – but Some Don't is a 2012 book by Nate Silver detailing the art of using probability and statistics as applied to real-world circumstances. The book includes case studies from baseball, elections, climate change, the 2008 financial crash , poker, and weather forecasting.
The planning fallacy is a phenomenon in which predictions about how much time will be needed to complete a future task display an optimism bias and underestimate the time needed. This phenomenon sometimes occurs regardless of the individual's knowledge that past tasks of a similar nature have taken longer to complete than generally planned.
Below is an alphabetical list of widely used and repeated proverbial phrases. If known, their origins are noted. A proverbial phrase or expression is a type of conventional saying similar to a proverb and transmitted by oral tradition.
“The loss of young first love is so painful that it borders on the ludicrous.” “If you have only one smile in you, give it to the people you love.”
Second: "In situations with palpable unknowns, where the illusion of validity in decision-making is a material threat, push hard to do research, polling and active listening to help identify the levers and pulleys that shape the operating and environmental realities of the present risk." Third: "Determine existing organizational challenges that ...
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