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The credit cycle is the expansion and contraction of access to credit over time. [1] Some economists, including Barry Eichengreen , Hyman Minsky , and other Post-Keynesian economists , and members of the Austrian school , regard credit cycles as the fundamental process driving the business cycle .
Business cycles are a type of fluctuation found in the aggregate economic activity of nations that organize their work mainly in business enterprises: a cycle consists of expansions occurring at about the same time in many economic activities, followed by similarly general recessions, contractions, and revivals which merge into the expansion ...
The Austrian business cycle theory (ABCT) is an economic theory developed by the Austrian School of economics seeking to explain how business cycles occur. The theory views business cycles as the consequence of excessive growth in bank credit due to artificially low interest rates set by a central bank or fractional reserve banks. [1]
The Kiyotaki–Moore model of credit cycles is an economic model developed by Nobuhiro Kiyotaki and John H. Moore that shows how small shocks to the economy might be amplified by credit restrictions, giving rise to large output fluctuations. The model assumes that borrowers cannot be forced to repay their debts.
The above framework provides a method to quantify credit cycles, their systematic and random components and resulting PIT and TTC PDs. This is accomplished for wholesale credit by summarizing, for each of several industries or regions, MKMV EDFs, Kamakura Default Probabilities (KDPs), or some other, comprehensive set of PIT PDs or DRs.
Procyclical and countercyclical variables are variables that fluctuate in a way that is positively or negatively correlated with business cycle fluctuations in gross domestic product (GDP). The scope of the concept may differ between the context of macroeconomic theory and that of economic policy –making.
Credit theories of money, also called debt theories of money, are monetary economic theories concerning the relationship between credit and money. Proponents of these theories, such as Alfred Mitchell-Innes , sometimes emphasize that money and credit/ debt are the same thing, seen from different points of view. [ 1 ]
The division into various time frames of macroeconomic research leads to a parallel division of macroeconomic policies into short-run policies aimed at mitigating the harmful consequences of business cycles (known as stabilization policy) and medium- and long-run policies targeted at improving the structural levels of macroeconomic variables.