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That poll ended up being wrong, as Trump is currently holding onto a 13-point lead in the state, but other Iowa pollsters got it much closer, pegging Trump’s winning margin in the high single ...
Why the polls got it wrong on Trump — again. John Bowden. November 6, 2024 at 3:00 PM. ... So what happened? Selzer, whose poll was off by more than 15 points at press time, ...
The poll was seen as a likely outlier at the time — but even so, its miss is notable: Trump ended up winning the state by 13 points. Selzer said after the election that she’s reviewing the ...
The state of Arkansas has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. [ 1 ] Trump easily carried the state for the third time in a row in 2024, this time by a 30.64% margin, [ 2 ] the largest since 1972 .
The people named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy. According to NPR 's analysis, the states considered to be not strongly leaning in either direction are Arizona , Georgia , Michigan , Nevada , North Carolina , Pennsylvania , and Wisconsin .
The Republican National Committee determined that candidates must qualify for the first primary debate by polling above 1% in three national polls since July 2023 – or in two national polls and one poll from two different early primary states (of which the polls must meet committee standards) – as well as attract donations from at least 40,000 individuals, with at least 200 from each of 20 ...
Assessing the accuracy of polls is much more complicated than it looks.
Those results were within our poll's margin of error, meaning we were correct to declare it "too close to call" — and we would have been wrong to say Clinton was ahead. 2024 will be a close election