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Smoothing of a noisy sine (blue curve) with a moving average (red curve). In statistics, a moving average (rolling average or running average or moving mean [1] or rolling mean) is a calculation to analyze data points by creating a series of averages of different selections of the full data set.
Exponential smoothing or exponential moving average (EMA) is a rule of thumb technique for smoothing time series data using the exponential window function. Whereas in the simple moving average the past observations are weighted equally, exponential functions are used to assign exponentially decreasing weights over time. It is an easily learned ...
These functions are shown in the plot at the right. For example, with a 9-point linear function (moving average) two thirds of the noise is removed and with a 9-point quadratic/cubic smoothing function only about half the noise is removed. Most of the noise remaining is low-frequency noise(see Frequency characteristics of convolution filters, below
Local regression or local polynomial regression, [1] also known as moving regression, [2] is a generalization of the moving average and polynomial regression. [3] Its most common methods, initially developed for scatterplot smoothing, are LOESS (locally estimated scatterplot smoothing) and LOWESS (locally weighted scatterplot smoothing), both pronounced / ˈ l oʊ ɛ s / LOH-ess.
In calculus, and especially multivariable calculus, the mean of a function is loosely defined as the average value of the function over its domain. In one variable, the mean of a function f(x) over the interval (a,b) is defined by: [1] ¯ = ().
In time series analysis, the moving-average model (MA model), also known as moving-average process, is a common approach for modeling univariate time series. [ 1 ] [ 2 ] The moving-average model specifies that the output variable is cross-correlated with a non-identical to itself random-variable.
For instance, the 10% trimmed mean is the average of the 5th to 95th percentile of the data, while the 90% winsorized mean sets the bottom 5% to the 5th percentile, the top 5% to the 95th percentile, and then averages the data. Winsorizing thus does not change the total number of values in the data set, N.
ARMA is appropriate when a system is a function of a series of unobserved shocks (the MA or moving average part) as well as its own behavior. For example, stock prices may be shocked by fundamental information as well as exhibiting technical trending and mean-reversion effects due to market participants. [citation needed]