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Statistician Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight maintains a list of pollsters who conduct surveys in U.S. political elections and assigns each pollster a rating based on its methodology and historical accuracy. [9] Silver also lists the number of polls analyzed for each pollster. [9] Cygnal [10] [11] [12] Elway Research; Emerson College Polling [13]
The company performed well, producing accurate predictions in states ranging from South Carolina to Wisconsin, many of which featured inaccurate results by other pollsters. [ 9 ] [ non-primary source needed ] [ 10 ] After the November election, PPP was ranked by the Wall Street Journal as one of the two most accurate firms, among those who were ...
Chart of Democratic-candidate lead over Republican candidate in final poll and results by year, 1936 to 2016. Gallup was the first polling organization to conduct accurate opinion polling for United States presidential elections.
The Emerson poll estimated Trump was ahead by 10 points. This year’s campaign produced more than a few notably off-target predictions based on intimations rather than survey data.
Polling is a combination of math and logic, taking in all sorts of factors to try to deliver the most accurate estimate possible of the electorate. ... launching local pollster EPIC-MRA in 1992 ...
[538 41] [34] [35] The transition took place on August 25, 2010, with the publication of Silver's first FiveThirtyEight blog article online in The New York Times. [538 42] On June 3, 2010, The New York Times and Silver announced that FiveThirtyEight had formed a partnership under which the blog would be hosted by the Times for a period of three ...
There are 17 days remaining from Election Day. As the date is closer to arriving, more polls will come out. However, the reliability of the polls has been questioned recently.
In a February 2010 interview with National Journal, he said that "it's very hard to come up with a scenario where Democrats don't lose the House. It's very hard." [8] Rasmussen Reports. On November 1, 2010, Scott Rasmussen predicted the Democrats "will likely lose 55 or more seats in the House." [9] Rothenberg Political Report.