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On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control ...
Each of these models relied initially on a combination of electoral history, demographics, and polling. The 538 model had forecast a net pickup of 8 seats by the Republicans in the Senate and 55 seats in the House, close to the actual outcome of a pickup of 6 seats in the Senate and 63 seats in the House. [538 44]
In not-breaking news, the 2024 race for the White House appears very close.Tellingly, 538’s latest presidential election forecast gives Vice President Kamala Harris the narrowest of advantages ...
The New York Times "FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus" commenced on August 25, 2010, with the publication of "New Forecast Shows Democrats Losing 6 to 7 Senate Seats". [51] From that date the blog focused almost exclusively on forecasting the outcomes of the 2010 U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives elections as well as ...
The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections was held on November 5, 2024, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. The six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories will also be elected.
Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
“We will publish an election forecast including the new presumptive Democratic nominee, when such nominee is announced.” Data journalist Nate Silver criticized FiveThirtyEight, the polling and ...
In the event of a tie, the newly elected House of Representatives will elect the president, and the newly elected Senate will elect the vice president. Possible Electoral Vote Counts When you vote, you don’t elect the president: You tell your state’s electoral-college electors how to vote.