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Pythagorean expectation is a sports analytics formula devised by Bill James to estimate the percentage of games a baseball team "should" have won based on the number of runs they scored and allowed. Comparing a team's actual and Pythagorean winning percentage can be used to make predictions and evaluate which teams are over-performing and under ...
The resulting percentage is often compared to a team's true winning percentage, and a team is said to have "overachieved" or "underachieved" compared to the Pythagorean expectation. For example, Bill Barnwell calculated that before week 9 of the 2014 NFL season, the Arizona Cardinals had a Pythagorean record two wins lower than their real ...
Per Pro Football Reference’s calculations, the Vikings’ actual winning percentage (.765) surpassed their expected one (.494) by more than that of any other team to reach that level, which ...
See Football Conference for an example.), and every team plays every opponent twice (home and away) and as such, no playoffs are usually done to determine the winner; the team with the best record wins the championship outright, with several tiebreaking criteria to determine a team's overall standing.
Super Bowl Squares are the second most popular office sports betting tradition in the United States (No. 1: March Madness brackets), maybe because the outcome is based entirely on luck. Here's how ...
Advanced Football Analytics uses its win probability model to analyze strategic coaching decisions such as whether to kick or attempt first down conversions. Research topics include game theory applications, luck and randomness, [ 9 ] play calling, home field advantage, run-pass balance, and the relative importance of various facets of ...
That’s according to the Pythagorean winning percentage formula, the tried-and-true formula that uses a team’s run differential to calculate what its record should be. Following Sunday’s loss ...
Football Outsiders (FO) was a website started in July 2003 which focused on advanced statistical analysis of the National Football League (NFL). The site was run by a staff of regular writers, who produced a series of weekly columns using both the site's in-house statistics and their personal analyses of NFL games.
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