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The continuum between the extremes is ignored. The term probability neglect was coined by Cass Sunstein. [1] There are many related ways in which people violate the normative rules of decision making with regard to probability including the hindsight bias, the neglect of prior base rates effect, and the gambler's fallacy. However, this bias is ...
Neglect of probability, the tendency to completely disregard probability when making a decision under uncertainty. [52] Scope neglect or scope insensitivity, the tendency to be insensitive to the size of a problem when evaluating it. For example, being willing to pay as much to save 2,000 children or 20,000 children.
The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that, if an event (whose occurrences are independent and identically distributed) has occurred less frequently than expected, it is more likely to happen again in the future (or vice versa).
A simple example is given by Amos Tversky: when someone wants to purchase a new car, the first aspect they will take into account might be the automatic transmission, this will eliminate all alternatives that do not contain such an aspect. Then, when all the alternatives that do not have this feature are eliminated, another aspect will be given ...
Biases can be distinguished on a number of dimensions. Examples of cognitive biases include - Biases specific to groups (such as the risky shift) versus biases at the individual level. Biases that affect decision-making, where the desirability of options has to be considered (e.g., sunk costs fallacy).
Logical Fallacies, Literacy Education Online; Informal Fallacies, Texas State University page on informal fallacies; Stephen's Guide to the Logical Fallacies (mirror) Visualization: Rhetological Fallacies, Information is Beautiful; Master List of Logical Fallacies, University of Texas at El Paso; Fallacies, Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy
An example of the base rate fallacy is the false positive paradox (also known as accuracy paradox).This paradox describes situations where there are more false positive test results than true positives (this means the classifier has a low precision).
Many researchers have attempted to identify the psychological process which creates the availability heuristic. Tversky and Kahneman argue that the number of examples recalled from memory is used to infer the frequency with which such instances occur. In an experiment to test this explanation, participants listened to lists of names containing ei