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The continuum between the extremes is ignored. The term probability neglect was coined by Cass Sunstein. [1] There are many related ways in which people violate the normative rules of decision making with regard to probability including the hindsight bias, the neglect of prior base rates effect, and the gambler's fallacy. However, this bias is ...
Research suggests that use or neglect of base rates can be influenced by how the problem is presented, which reminds us that the representativeness heuristic is not a "general, all purpose heuristic", but may have many contributing factors. [16] Base rates may be neglected more often when the information presented is not causal. [17]
Neglect of probability, the tendency to completely disregard probability when making a decision under uncertainty. [52] Scope neglect or scope insensitivity, the tendency to be insensitive to the size of a problem when evaluating it. For example, being willing to pay as much to save 2,000 children or 20,000 children.
An example of the base rate fallacy is the false positive paradox (also known as accuracy paradox).This paradox describes situations where there are more false positive test results than true positives (this means the classifier has a low precision).
Another research also demonstrated that elimination by aspects has widely been used in electricity contract choice. [24] The logic behind these two examples is that elimination by aspects helps to make decisions when facing a series of complicated choices.
Logical Fallacies, Literacy Education Online; Informal Fallacies, Texas State University page on informal fallacies; Stephen's Guide to the Logical Fallacies (mirror) Visualization: Rhetological Fallacies, Information is Beautiful; Master List of Logical Fallacies, University of Texas at El Paso; Fallacies, Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy
In others, it is purposeful and for the gain of the perpetrator. When the statistical reason involved is false or misapplied, this constitutes a statistical fallacy. The consequences of such misinterpretations can be quite severe. For example, in medical science, correcting a falsehood may take decades and cost lives. Misuses can be easy to ...
Hasty generalization is the fallacy of examining just one or very few examples or studying a single case and generalizing that to be representative of the whole class of objects or phenomena. The opposite, slothful induction , is the fallacy of denying the logical conclusion of an inductive argument, dismissing an effect as "just a coincidence ...