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According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris enjoys a 3.1-point lead over Trump in the average of national polls. Odds could change greatly next week when the two candidates take part in their first head ...
But, betting odds and national polls are in a disagreement right now. According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris has a 48.5 to 45.9 edge nationally, so it will likely come down to who wins the ...
Those models showed that either candidate could easily win the election. FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin each had Harris’s odds at 50%. Split Ticket put her at 53%.
Who will win the race to the White House? Here are presidential polling averages nationally and in seven battleground states as of Oct. 17. ... FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +1.7. 270 to Win ...
[200] [201] Trump continued to win all four early voting contests while Haley's campaign struggled to gain momentum. [202] On March 6, 2024, the day after winning only one primary out of fifteen on Super Tuesday, Haley suspended her campaign. [203] [204] On March 12, 2024, Trump officially became the presumptive Republican presidential nominee ...
The latest average of national polls, collated by FiveThirtyEight, shows Harris with a 2.6-point lead over Trump. On average, Harris has been marginally ahead of Trump in national polls for ...
FiveThirtyEight is the 2008 Weblog Award Winner for "Best Political Coverage". [98] FiveThirtyEight earned a 2009 "Bloggie" as the "Best Weblog about Politics" in the 9th Annual Weblog Awards. [99] In April 2009, Silver was named "Blogger of the Year" in the 6th Annual Opinion Awards of The Week, for his work on FiveThirtyEight. [100]
To compare our model with others, we output the probability each candidate will win in each state. Download our TSV files for state-by-state averages and state-by-state curves. 2. Likely Vote Counts. Finally, we simulate a Nov. 8 election 10 million times using the state-by-state averages. In each simulation, we generate a result for each state ...