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  2. Prediction interval - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_interval

    Given a sample from a normal distribution, whose parameters are unknown, it is possible to give prediction intervals in the frequentist sense, i.e., an interval [a, b] based on statistics of the sample such that on repeated experiments, X n+1 falls in the interval the desired percentage of the time; one may call these "predictive confidence intervals".

  3. Mean squared prediction error - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean_squared_prediction_error

    When the model has been estimated over all available data with none held back, the MSPE of the model over the entire population of mostly unobserved data can be estimated as follows.

  4. Scoring rule - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scoring_rule

    That is, a prediction of 80% that correctly proved true would receive a score of ln(0.8) = −0.22. This same prediction also assigns 20% likelihood to the opposite case, and so if the prediction proves false, it would receive a score based on the 20%: ln(0.2) = −1.6. The goal of a forecaster is to maximize the score and for the score to be ...

  5. Statistical model - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_model

    In Bayesian statistics, the model is extended by adding a probability distribution over the parameter space . A statistical model can sometimes distinguish two sets of probability distributions. The first set Q = { F θ : θ ∈ Θ } {\displaystyle {\mathcal {Q}}=\{F_{\theta }:\theta \in \Theta \}} is the set of models considered for inference.

  6. Calibration (statistics) - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calibration_(statistics)

    There are two main uses of the term calibration in statistics that denote special types of statistical inference problems. Calibration can mean a reverse process to regression, where instead of a future dependent variable being predicted from known explanatory variables, a known observation of the dependent variables is used to predict a corresponding explanatory variable; [1]

  7. Forecast error - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forecast_error

    Michael Fish - A few hours before the Great Storm of 1987 broke, on 15 October 1987, he said during a forecast: "Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way.

  8. Posterior predictive distribution - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Posterior_predictive...

    In Bayesian statistics, the posterior predictive distribution is the distribution of possible unobserved values conditional on the observed values. [1] [2]Given a set of N i.i.d. observations = {, …,}, a new value ~ will be drawn from a distribution that depends on a parameter , where is the parameter space.

  9. Peabody Individual Achievement Test - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peabody_Individual...

    It can be administered to individuals between the ages of five and 22 years of age, and returns a grade range between Kindergarten and grade 12. [1] The test is available in English and Spanish. The most recent version of this test, created by Frederick C. Markwardt Jr. and published by Pearson American Guidance Service. is entitled Peabody ...

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