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As of Oct. 30 at 11:30 a.m. Eastern, the margin between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump in 538's polling averages is smaller than 4 points in seven states: the familiar septet of Arizona ...
On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control ...
If he had continued on that path, he would have been favored to win the race in 538's forecast by later this month — perhaps as soon as this week. Instead, Harris is the one who has modestly ...
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Kamala Harris Democratic Donald Trump Republican Others/ Undecided [a]Margin 270toWin [1]: through November 4, 2024
Without this adjustment, Harris and Trump would be tied at 44.0 percent nationally (based on polls conducted since July 22 and released by Aug. 1). But Harris's margin is about 0.2 points higher ...
Harris had been leading Trump according to bookmakers for about a month before Tuesday's vice presidential debate. According to realclearpolling.com, Harris now has a 49.4% chance to win November ...
Harris has 49 percent of the vote and Trump 48 percent, according to the poll, which was taken in the first two weeks of October. This close race is also reflected in the swing states.
The result is that Harris would win with 270 electoral votes. (Amina Brown for 538.) According to the Swing-O-Matic, if Harris improves upon Biden’s margin among white voters by only 2-3 points ...