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Without this adjustment, Harris and Trump would be tied at 44.0 percent nationally (based on polls conducted since July 22 and released by Aug. 1). But Harris's margin is about 0.2 points higher ...
On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control ...
As of Oct. 30 at 11:30 a.m. Eastern, the margin between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump in 538's polling averages is smaller than 4 points in seven states: the familiar septet of Arizona ...
Harris had been leading Trump according to bookmakers for about a month before Tuesday's vice presidential debate. According to realclearpolling.com, Harris now has a 49.4% chance to win November ...
The only exceptions are Leger, Redfield & Wilton Strategies and Ipsos/ABC News, whose post-debate polls showed Harris losing 1 point, standing pat and standing pat, respectively, compared with ...
A separate Washington Post/Schar School megapoll (of 5,000 registered voters) has Harris just 1 point ahead of Trump. Harris has 49 percent of the vote and Trump 48 percent, according to the poll ...
The result is that Harris would win with 270 electoral votes. (Amina Brown for 538.) According to the Swing-O-Matic, if Harris improves upon Biden’s margin among white voters by only 2-3 points ...
A YouGov/Economist poll has Harris with a three-point lead among registered voters, at 47 percent and Trump at 44 percent. The poll shows a wide 25-point margin for Harris among young voters, aged ...