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There is no official definition of a recession, according to the IMF. [3] In the United States, a recession is defined as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."
The Sahm rule signals the early stages (onset) of a recession and generated only two false positive recession alerts since the year 1959 (there have been 11 recessions since 1950); in both instances — in 1959 and 1969 — it was just a little untimely, with the recession warning appearing a few months before a slide in the U.S. economy began ...
Recession indicators are flashing red, but economists argue they could be false signals this economic cycle, revealing a broader truth about the recession predicting business itself. Recession ...
Economists, investors and the Federal Reserve have sounded alarm bells for months that a recession could come later this year. But a growing chorus of experts believe a downturn might not happen ...
The recession of 2020, was the shortest and steepest in U.S. history and marked the end of 128 months of expansion. Key Predictors, Indicators and Warning Signs of a Recession
The International Monetary Fund defines a global recession as "a decline in annual per‑capita real World GDP (purchasing power parity weighted), backed up by a decline or worsening for one or more of the seven other global macroeconomic indicators: Industrial production, trade, capital flows, oil consumption, unemployment rate, per‑capita investment, and per‑capita consumption".
The S&P 500 is trading at 23 times above annual earnings, nearly two standard deviations above its mean, while analysts project earnings-per-share growth of 13% in 2025, nearly double the 6.6% ...
Economists commonly use the term recession to mean either a period of two successive calendar quarters each having negative growth [clarification needed] of real gross domestic product [1] [2] [3] —that is, of the total amount of goods and services produced within a country—or that provided by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): "...a significant decline in economic activity ...