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The elections of 1876, 1960, and 2008 (an election the keys predicted prospectively) all had nine false keys against the incumbent party, which was the Republicans on all three occasions. For the elections between 1860 and 1980, the keys corresponded with the popular vote winner for all 31 elections, and corresponded with the elected president ...
Allan Lichtman's prediction on whether Trump or Harris will win the 2024 presidential election based on his 13 keys for ... The White House party gained House seats during the midterm elections.
Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of 9 out of the 10 most recent presidential elections, dating back to 1984. The one he got wrong? The 2000 presidential race where George W. Bush beat ...
Using his system, Lichtman has correctly predicted nine of 11 presidential elections since 1984. His first blemish came when Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore in the 2000 election.
On September 5, 2024, Lichtman predicted that Harris would win the election. [55] On November 6, 2024, contrary to Lichtman's prediction, Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election. [8] This was the first time Lichtman inaccurately predicted both the popular vote and the Electoral College outcome.
Presidential elections were held in the United States on November 5, 2024. [a] The Republican Party's ticket—Donald Trump, who was the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021, and JD Vance, the junior U.S. senator from Ohio—defeated the Democratic Party's ticket—Kamala Harris, the incumbent vice president, and Tim Walz, the 41st governor of Minnesota.
Lichtman is known as the “Nostradamus” of polling due to the fact he has correctly predicted the results of nine out of 10 presidential elections since 1984.
Prediction markets show very accurate forecasts of an election outcome. One example is the Iowa Electronic Markets. In a study, 964 election polls were compared with the five US presidential elections from 1988 to 2004. Berg et al. (2008) showed that the Iowa Electronic Markets topped the polls 74% of the time. [11]