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The following head-to-head polls feature some of the individuals who officially declared their candidacies. The incumbent president, Joe Biden, won the Democratic primaries.
Pollsters caution against assuming that the polls this cycle are susceptible to the same errors as previous ones that underestimated support for former President Trump, arguing that every election ...
That undershoot of 3 points follows polls in 2020 that underestimated Trump's national margin by 4 points and in 2016 that underestimated his performance by 2 points, according to 538's averages.
Donald Trump trails Kamala Harris in most 2024 polls. But the margin now is smaller than he faced in his first two general elections in 2016 and 2020. ... Clinton won the popular vote over Trump ...
[70] [71] FiveThirtyEight ' s model pointed to the possibility of an Electoral College-popular vote split widening in final weeks based on both Clinton's small lead in general polls, but also on Trump's improvement in swing states like Florida or Pennsylvania, mixed with Clinton's poor performance in several of those swing states in comparison ...
Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
2016 United States presidential election ← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 → 538 members of the Electoral College 270 electoral votes needed to win Opinion polls Turnout 60.1% (1.5 pp) Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton Party Republican Democratic Home state New York New York Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine Electoral vote 304 [a] 227 [a] States carried 30 + ME-02 20 + DC Popular vote ...
The Reality of Trump vs. Harris Right Now ... Eight years ago, Trump and Clinton were tied at 44.3 percent, each. ... Today, the 538 average of surveys gauging the former president’s popularity ...