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In Bayesian statistics, the posterior predictive distribution is the distribution of possible unobserved values conditional on the observed values. [1] [2]Given a set of N i.i.d. observations = {, …,}, a new value ~ will be drawn from a distribution that depends on a parameter , where is the parameter space.
Accuracy is also used as a statistical measure of how well a binary classification test correctly identifies or excludes a condition. That is, the accuracy is the proportion of correct predictions (both true positives and true negatives) among the total number of cases examined. [10]
Given a sample from a normal distribution, whose parameters are unknown, it is possible to give prediction intervals in the frequentist sense, i.e., an interval [a, b] based on statistics of the sample such that on repeated experiments, X n+1 falls in the interval the desired percentage of the time; one may call these "predictive confidence intervals".
The prior predictive distribution is the distribution of a new data point, marginalized over the prior: (~) = (~) () Bayesian theory calls for the use of the posterior predictive distribution to do predictive inference , i.e., to predict the distribution of a new, unobserved data point.
The positive predictive value (PPV), or precision, is defined as = + = where a "true positive" is the event that the test makes a positive prediction, and the subject has a positive result under the gold standard, and a "false positive" is the event that the test makes a positive prediction, and the subject has a negative result under the gold standard.
In a classification task, the precision for a class is the number of true positives (i.e. the number of items correctly labelled as belonging to the positive class) divided by the total number of elements labelled as belonging to the positive class (i.e. the sum of true positives and false positives, which are items incorrectly labelled as belonging to the class).
The utility is most commonly defined in terms of a measure of the accuracy of the information provided by the experiment (e.g., the Shannon information or the negative of the variance) but may also involve factors such as the financial cost of performing the experiment. What will be the optimal experiment design depends on the particular ...
Even though the accuracy is 10 + 999000 / 1000000 ≈ 99.9%, 990 out of the 1000 positive predictions are incorrect. The precision of 10 / 10 + 990 = 1% reveals its poor performance. As the classes are so unbalanced, a better metric is the F1 score = 2 × 0.01 × 1 / 0.01 + 1 ≈ 2% (the recall being 10 + 0 / 10 ...