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Financial risk modeling is the use of formal mathematical and econometric techniques to measure, monitor and control the market risk, credit risk, and operational risk on a firm's balance sheet, on a bank's accounting ledger of tradeable financial assets, or of a fund manager's portfolio value; see Financial risk management.
The Standard & Poor's Guide to Measuring and Managing Credit Risk. McGraw-Hill. ISBN 978-0-07-141755-6. Darrell Duffie and Kenneth J. Singleton (2003). Credit Risk: Pricing, Measurement, and Management. Princeton University Press. ISBN 978-0-691-09046-7. Principles for the management of credit risk from the Bank for International Settlements
Financial modeling is the task of building an abstract representation (a model) of a real world financial situation. [1] This is a mathematical model designed to represent (a simplified version of) the performance of a financial asset or portfolio of a business, project , or any other investment.
The Merton model, [1] developed by Robert C. Merton in 1974, is a widely used "structural" credit risk model. Analysts and investors utilize the Merton model to understand how capable a company is at meeting financial obligations, servicing its debt, and weighing the general possibility that it will go into credit default .
Another approach to model risk is the worst-case, or minmax approach, advocated in decision theory by Gilboa and Schmeidler. [22] In this approach one considers a range of models and minimizes the loss encountered in the worst-case scenario. This approach to model risk has been developed by Cont (2006). [23]
Risk sensitivity - Capital requirements based on internal estimates are more sensitive to the credit risk in the bank's portfolio of assets; Incentive compatibility - Banks must adopt better risk management techniques to control the credit risk in their portfolio to minimize regulatory capital; To use this approach, a bank must take two major ...
The term standardized approach (or standardised approach) refers to a set of credit risk measurement techniques proposed under Basel II, which sets capital adequacy rules for banking institutions. Under this approach the banks are required to use ratings from external credit rating agencies to quantify required capital for credit risk. In many ...
Agency Replication model: Calibrate financial/non-financial factors/scorecard score to PDs estimated from the Agency Direct model. This approach works well where there is a large, co-rated dataset but a small sample of internal defaults—e.g. Insurance portfolio; External vendor model: Use of models such as MKMV EDF model with credit cycle ...