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Credibility theory is a branch of actuarial mathematics concerned with determining risk premiums. [1] To achieve this, it uses mathematical models in an effort to forecast the ( expected ) number of insurance claims based on past observations.
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In credibility theory, a branch of study in actuarial science, the Bühlmann model is a random effects model (or "variance components model" or hierarchical linear model) used to determine the appropriate premium for a group of insurance contracts. The model is named after Hans Bühlmann who first published a description in 1967.
While Halley actually predated much of what is now considered the start of the actuarial profession, he was the first to rigorously calculate premiums for a life insurance policy mathematically and statistically [32] James C. Hickman (1927–2006) American actuarial educator, researcher, and author [64] Oswald Jacoby (1902–1984)
Actuarial science is the discipline that applies mathematical and statistical methods to assess risk in insurance, pension, finance, investment and other industries and professions. Actuaries are professionals trained in this discipline.
The Bornhuetter–Ferguson method was introduced in the 1972 paper "The Actuary and IBNR", co-authored by Ron Bornhuetter and Ron Ferguson. [4] [5] [7] [8]Like other loss reserving techniques, the Bornhuetter–Ferguson method aims to estimate incurred but not reported insurance claim amounts.
In a review of the credibility thesis, Delilah Griswold contended that "credibility is a powerful metric by which to understand and evaluate tenure systems. Importantly, understanding the credibility of a given institution requires analysis outside of theory and politics, analysis that is locally and temporally specific and multilayered."
The Actuarial Society of America was the first actuarial professional association in North America, founded in 1889 with only 38 members and headquartered in New York City. Initial members were included by invitation, but the organization soon adopted a system of examination for qualification, with the first Fellow to qualify via exams joining ...