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To see how prospect theory can be applied, consider the decision to buy insurance. Assume the probability of the insured risk is 1%, the potential loss is $1,000 and the premium is $15. If we apply prospect theory, we first need to set a reference point. This could be the current wealth or the worst case (losing $1,000).
In prospect theory, the pseudocertainty effect is the tendency for people to perceive an outcome as certain while it is actually uncertain in multi-stage decision making. The evaluation of the certainty of the outcome in a previous stage of decisions is disregarded when selecting an option in subsequent stages.
The following relate to prospect theory: Ambiguity effect, the tendency to avoid options for which the probability of a favorable outcome is unknown. [69] Disposition effect, the tendency to sell an asset that has accumulated in value and resist selling an asset that has declined in value.
Reference dependence is a central principle in prospect theory and behavioral economics generally. It holds that people evaluate outcomes and express preferences relative to an existing reference point, or status quo. It is related to loss aversion and the endowment effect. [1] [2]
It is an idea introduced in prospect theory. Normally a reduction in the probability of winning a reward (e.g., a reduction from 80% to 20% in the chance of winning a reward) creates a psychological effect such as displeasure to individuals, which leads to the perception of loss from the original probability thus favoring a risk-averse decision.
Gain and loss are defined in the scenario as descriptions of outcomes, for example, lives lost or saved, patients treated or not treated, monetary gains or losses. [ 2 ] Prospect theory posits that a loss is more significant than the equivalent gain, [ 2 ] that a sure gain ( certainty effect and pseudocertainty effect ) is favored over a ...
Rational choice theory has become increasingly employed in social sciences other than economics, such as sociology, evolutionary theory and political science in recent decades. [ 13 ] [ 14 ] It has had far-reaching impacts on the study of political science , especially in fields like the study of interest groups, elections , behaviour in ...
In 1979, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky traced the cause of the disposition effect to the so-called "prospect theory". [3] The prospect theory proposes that when an individual is presented with two equal choices, one having possible gains and the other with possible losses, the individual is more likely to opt for the former choice even ...