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Pollster Nate Silver said that a 50/50 forecast for the presidential election means that people should start planning for the possibility that former President Trump takes back the White House in ...
Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, writer and poker player who analyzes baseball, basketball and elections.He is the founder of FiveThirtyEight and held the position of editor-in-chief there, along with being a special correspondent for ABC News until May 2023. [2]
Silver's predictions matched the actual results everywhere except in Indiana and the 2nd congressional district of Nebraska, which awards an electoral vote separately from the rest of the state. His projected national popular vote differential was below the actual figure of 7.2 points.
Election savant Nate Silver has put his marker down and revealed his “gut says” that former President Donald Trump will emerge victorious in the Nov. 5 election, while warning that polling ...
Pollster Nate Silver said in his latest election forecast that the White House race between former President Trump and Vice President Harris is likely to remain a toss-up until Election Day, now ...
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – but Some Don't is a 2012 book by Nate Silver detailing the art of using probability and statistics as applied to real-world circumstances. The book includes case studies from baseball, elections, climate change, the 2008 financial crash , poker, and weather forecasting.
Silver wrote in a guest essay published Wednesday by The New York Times that calling the race a 50-50 toss-up is the “only responsible forecast,” with polls showing the race as razor-tight in ...
The concept of tipping-point states was popularized by Nate Silver. "Tipping-point state" is used to analyze the median state of a United States presidential election.In a list of states ordered by decreasing margin of victory for the winning candidate, the tipping point state is the first state where the combined electoral votes of all states up to that point in the list give the winning ...
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