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The Dutch book arguments are used to explore degrees of certainty in beliefs, and demonstrate that rational agents must be Bayesian; [2] in other words, rationality requires assigning probabilities to events that behave according to the axioms of probability, and having preferences that can be modeled using the von Neumann–Morgenstern axioms.
2.4 Calculating with probabilities. 2.5 Independence. ... Print/export Download as PDF; Printable version; In other projects
The probabilities of rolling several numbers using two dice. Probability is the branch of mathematics and statistics concerning events and numerical descriptions of how likely they are to occur. The probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1; the larger the probability, the more likely an event is to occur.
There are two broad categories [1] [2] of probability interpretations which can be called "physical" and "evidential" probabilities. Physical probabilities, which are also called objective or frequency probabilities, are associated with random physical systems such as roulette wheels, rolling dice and radioactive atoms. In such systems, a given ...
The Beta distribution on [0,1], a family of two-parameter distributions with one mode, of which the uniform distribution is a special case, and which is useful in estimating success probabilities. The four-parameter Beta distribution , a straight-forward generalization of the Beta distribution to arbitrary bounded intervals [ a , b ...
[citation needed] One author uses the terminology of the "Rule of Average Conditional Probabilities", [4] while another refers to it as the "continuous law of alternatives" in the continuous case. [5] This result is given by Grimmett and Welsh [6] as the partition theorem, a name that they also give to the related law of total expectation.
Random variables are usually written in upper case Roman letters, such as or and so on. Random variables, in this context, usually refer to something in words, such as "the height of a subject" for a continuous variable, or "the number of cars in the school car park" for a discrete variable, or "the colour of the next bicycle" for a categorical variable.
The total variation distance (or half the norm) arises as the optimal transportation cost, when the cost function is (,) =, that is, ‖ ‖ = (,) = {(): =, =} = [], where the expectation is taken with respect to the probability measure on the space where (,) lives, and the infimum is taken over all such with marginals and , respectively.
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