Search results
Results from the WOW.Com Content Network
The base rate fallacy, also called base rate neglect [2] or base rate bias, is a type of fallacy in which people tend to ignore the base rate (e.g., general prevalence) in favor of the individuating information (i.e., information pertaining only to a specific case). [3]
Base rates may be neglected more often when the information presented is not causal. [17] Base rates are used less if there is relevant individuating information. [18] Groups have been found to neglect base rate more than individuals do. [19] Use of base rates differs based on context. [20]
For example, if the control group, using no treatment at all, had their own base rate of 1/20 recoveries within 1 day and a treatment had a 1/100 base rate of recovery within 1 day, we see that the treatment actively decreases the recovery. The base rate is an important concept in statistical inference, particularly in Bayesian statistics. [2]
The following are forms of extension neglect: Base rate fallacy or base rate neglect, the tendency to ignore general information and focus on information only pertaining to the specific case, even when the general information is more important. [47]
In another example of near-total neglect of probability, Rottenstreich and Hsee (2001) found that the typical subject was willing to pay $10 to avoid a 99% chance of a painful electric shock, and $7 to avoid a 1% chance of the same shock. They suggest that probability is more likely to be neglected when the outcomes are emotion-arousing.
Base rate heuristic: When a decision involves probability this is a mental shortcut that uses relevant data to determine the probability of an outcome occurring. When using this Heuristic there is a common issue where individuals misjudge the likelihood of a situation.
The example in the first paragraph tries to illustrate the base rate fallacy, but actually does so by falling prey to the base rate fallacy: "However, there are far more salespeople than librarians overall - hence making it more likely that their friend is actually a salesperson, even if a greater proportion of librarians fit the description of ...
Representativeness heuristic — judging probabilities based on resemblance [6] Affect heuristic — basing a decision on an emotional reaction rather than a calculation of risks and benefits [60] Emotional and moral motivations [61] deriving, for example, from: The two-factor theory of emotion; The somatic markers hypothesis; Introspection ...