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Heuer outlines the ACH process in considerable depth in his book, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. [1] It consists of the following steps: Hypothesis – The first step of the process is to identify all potential hypotheses, preferably using a group of analysts with different perspectives to brainstorm the possibilities.
Download as PDF; Printable version; ... (rejecting a null hypothesis when it is in fact true) = sample size ... = sample mean of differences ...
The following table defines the possible outcomes when testing multiple null hypotheses. Suppose we have a number m of null hypotheses, denoted by: H 1, H 2, ..., H m. Using a statistical test, we reject the null hypothesis if the test is declared significant. We do not reject the null hypothesis if the test is non-significant.
The null hypothesis corresponds to the position of the defendant: just as he is presumed to be innocent until proven guilty, so is the null hypothesis presumed to be true until the data provide convincing evidence against it. The alternative hypothesis corresponds to the position against the defendant.
Test statistic is a quantity derived from the sample for statistical hypothesis testing. [1] A hypothesis test is typically specified in terms of a test statistic, considered as a numerical summary of a data-set that reduces the data to one value that can be used to perform the hypothesis test.
Thus, the null hypothesis is rejected if >, (where , is the upper tail critical value for the distribution). Bartlett's test is a modification of the corresponding likelihood ratio test designed to make the approximation to the χ k − 1 2 {\displaystyle \chi _{k-1}^{2}} distribution better (Bartlett, 1937).
Thus the counternull is an alternative hypothesis that, when used to replace the null hypothesis, generates the same p-value as had the original null hypothesis of “no difference.” [3] Some researchers contend that reporting the counternull, in addition to the p -value, serves to counter two common errors of judgment: [ 4 ]
The beans in the bag are the population. The handful are the sample. The null hypothesis is that the sample originated from the population. The criterion for rejecting the null-hypothesis is the "obvious" difference in appearance (an informal difference in the mean).