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  2. PERT distribution - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PERT_distribution

    In probability and statistics, the PERT distributions are a family of continuous probability distributions defined by the minimum (a), most likely (b) and maximum (c) values that a variable can take. It is a transformation of the four-parameter beta distribution with an additional assumption that its expected value is

  3. Three-point estimation - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-point_estimation

    For example, a triangular distribution might be used, depending on the application. In three-point estimation, three figures are produced initially for every distribution that is required, based on prior experience or best-guesses: a = the best-case estimate; m = the most likely estimate; b = the worst-case estimate

  4. Program evaluation and review technique - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Program_Evaluation_and...

    It can be understood as representing the time, effort, and resources required to move from one event to another. A PERT activity cannot be performed until the predecessor event has occurred. PERT sub-activity: a PERT activity can be further decomposed into a set of sub-activities. For example, activity A1 can be decomposed into A1.1, A1.2 and A1.3.

  5. List of probability distributions - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_probability...

    The Dirac delta function, although not strictly a probability distribution, is a limiting form of many continuous probability functions. It represents a discrete probability distribution concentrated at 0 — a degenerate distribution — it is a Distribution (mathematics) in the generalized function sense; but the notation treats it as if it ...

  6. 68–95–99.7 rule - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/68–95–99.7_rule

    In such discussions it is important to be aware of the problem of the gambler's fallacy, which states that a single observation of a rare event does not contradict that the event is in fact rare. It is the observation of a plurality of purportedly rare events that increasingly undermines the hypothesis that they are rare, i.e. the validity of ...

  7. German tank problem - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_tank_problem

    These are easily computed, based on the observation that the probability that k observations in the sample will fall in an interval covering p of the range (0 ≤ p ≤ 1) is p k (assuming in this section that draws are with replacement, to simplify computations; if draws are without replacement, this overstates the likelihood, and intervals ...

  8. Probability distribution fitting - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_distribution...

    An estimate of the uncertainty in the first and second case can be obtained with the binomial probability distribution using for example the probability of exceedance Pe (i.e. the chance that the event X is larger than a reference value Xr of X) and the probability of non-exceedance Pn (i.e. the chance that the event X is smaller than or equal ...

  9. Markov chain - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Markov_chain

    The probability of achieving now depends on ; for example, the state =,, is not possible. After the second draw, the third draw depends on which coins have so far been drawn, but no longer only on the coins that were drawn for the first state (since probabilistically important information has since been added to the scenario).

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