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A drawback of polynomial bases is that the basis functions are "non-local", meaning that the fitted value of y at a given value x = x 0 depends strongly on data values with x far from x 0. [9] In modern statistics, polynomial basis-functions are used along with new basis functions , such as splines , radial basis functions , and wavelets .
All have the same trend, but more filtering leads to higher r 2 of fitted trend line. The least-squares fitting process produces a value, r-squared (r 2), which is 1 minus the ratio of the variance of the residuals to the variance of the dependent variable. It says what fraction of the variance of the data is explained by the fitted trend line.
A trend line could simply be drawn by eye through a set of data points, but more properly their position and slope is calculated using statistical techniques like linear regression. Trend lines typically are straight lines, although some variations use higher degree polynomials depending on the degree of curvature desired in the line.
Local regression or local polynomial regression, [1] also known as moving regression, [2] is a generalization of the moving average and polynomial regression. [3] Its most common methods, initially developed for scatterplot smoothing, are LOESS (locally estimated scatterplot smoothing) and LOWESS (locally weighted scatterplot smoothing), both pronounced / ˈ l oʊ ɛ s / LOH-ess.
In some fields of study, the term has more formally defined meanings. [ 1 ] [ 2 ] [ 3 ] Although trend analysis is often used to predict future events, it could be used to estimate uncertain events in the past, such as how many ancient kings probably ruled between two dates, based on data such as the average years which other known kings reigned.
A polynomial function is one that has the form = + + + + + where n is a non-negative integer that defines the degree of the polynomial. A polynomial with a degree of 0 is simply a constant function; with a degree of 1 is a line; with a degree of 2 is a quadratic; with a degree of 3 is a cubic, and so on.
A variation of the Theil–Sen estimator, the repeated median regression of Siegel (1982), determines for each sample point (x i, y i), the median m i of the slopes (y j − y i)/(x j − x i) of lines through that point, and then determines the overall estimator as the median of these medians.
In statistics, ordinary least squares (OLS) is a type of linear least squares method for choosing the unknown parameters in a linear regression model (with fixed level-one [clarification needed] effects of a linear function of a set of explanatory variables) by the principle of least squares: minimizing the sum of the squares of the differences between the observed dependent variable (values ...