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At 538, we publish rolling averages for a variety of elections and questions, such as the 2024 presidential race nationally and in swing states, the president's approval rating, the favorability ...
According to 538's analysis of polls conducted in competitive states* in which over 95 percent of the expected vote was counted as of Nov. 8 at 6 a.m. Eastern, the average poll conducted over the ...
The 538 predictive model for the 2024 presidential election shows President Biden more likely to win than former President Trump — Biden’s best odds since May. The model’s Tuesday update ...
Poll results can be affected by methodology, especially in how they predict who will vote in the next election, and re-weighting answers to compensate for slightly non-random samples. One technique, "weighting on recalled vote" is an attempt to compensate for previous underestimates of votes for Donald Trump by rebalancing the sample based on ...
This national electoral calendar for 2024 lists the national/federal elections held in 2024 in all sovereign states and their dependent territories. By-elections are excluded, though national referendums are included.
SAPP will contest the election under GRS, the local coalition which it is a component in parallel with PN since 2020. This is the first time PN contesting the election under its own banner, although its component party Sabah BERSATU have contested and won seats before, under PH (PKR) and GRS in the 2018 and 2020 state elections respectively ...
On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control ...
Looking at 538’s forecast, the most likely tipping-point state across all scenarios for the 2024 election is Pennsylvania. In 18 out of 100 cases, the Keystone State provides the winning ...