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So conservative investors might want to avoid options with very high implied volatility or use it to set stop-loss orders and hedge positions. Bottom line.
The implied volatility of the option is determined to be 18.0%. A short time later, the option is trading at $2.10 with the underlying at $43.34, yielding an implied volatility of 17.2%. Even though the option's price is higher at the second measurement, it is still considered cheaper based on volatility.
The implied volatility surface simultaneously shows both volatility smile and term structure of volatility. Option traders use an implied volatility plot to quickly determine the shape of the implied volatility surface, and to identify any areas where the slope of the plot (and therefore relative implied volatilities) seems out of line.
This corresponds to the asset following geometric Brownian motion with drift r, the risk-free rate, and diffusion σ, the implied volatility. Drift is the mean, with the corresponding median (50th percentile) being r−σ 2 /2, which is the reason for the correction factor. Note that this is the implied probability, not the real-world probability.
future implied volatility which refers to the implied volatility observed from future prices of the financial instrument For a financial instrument whose price follows a Gaussian random walk , or Wiener process , the width of the distribution increases as time increases.
A short time later, the same option might trade at $2.50 with the underlying's price at $46.36 and be yielding an implied volatility of 16.5%. Even though the option's price is higher at the second measurement, the option is still considered cheaper because the implied volatility is lower.
It consists of adjusting the Black–Scholes theoretical value (BSTV) by the cost of a portfolio which hedges three main risks associated to the volatility of the option: the Vega, the Vanna and the Volga. The Vanna is the sensitivity of the Vega with respect to a change in the spot FX rate:
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