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Informally, in frequentist statistics, a confidence interval (CI) is an interval which is expected to typically contain the parameter being estimated. More specifically, given a confidence level (95% and 99% are typical values), a CI is a random interval which contains the parameter being estimated % of the time. [1][2] The confidence level ...
Analytic confidence is a rating employed by intelligence analysts to convey doubt to decision makers about a statement of estimative probability. The need for analytic confidence ratings arise from analysts' imperfect knowledge of a conceptual model. An analytic confidence rating pairs with a statement using a word of estimative probability to ...
A confidence band is used in statistical analysis to represent the uncertainty in an estimate of a curve or function based on limited or noisy data. Similarly, a prediction band is used to represent the uncertainty about the value of a new data-point on the curve, but subject to noise. Confidence and prediction bands are often used as part of ...
In statistics, robust measures of scale are methods that quantify the statistical dispersion in a sample of numerical data while resisting outliers. The most common such robust statistics are the interquartile range (IQR) and the median absolute deviation (MAD). These are contrasted with conventional or non-robust measures of scale, such as ...
Robust statistics are statistics that maintain their properties even if the underlying distributional assumptions are incorrect. Robust statistical methods have been developed for many common problems, such as estimating location, scale, and regression parameters. One motivation is to produce statistical methods that are not unduly affected by ...
Words of estimative probability (WEP or WEP s) are terms used by intelligence analysts in the production of analytic reports to convey the likelihood of a future event occurring. A well-chosen WEP gives a decision maker a clear and unambiguous estimate upon which to base a decision. Ineffective WEPs are vague or misleading about the likelihood ...
Given a sample from a normal distribution, whose parameters are unknown, it is possible to give prediction intervals in the frequentist sense, i.e., an interval [a, b] based on statistics of the sample such that on repeated experiments, X n+1 falls in the interval the desired percentage of the time; one may call these "predictive confidence intervals".
Statistical significance. Appearance. In statistical hypothesis testing, 1 [ 2 ] a result has statistical significance when a result at least as "extreme" would be very infrequent if the null hypothesis were true. 3 More precisely, a study's defined significance level, denoted by , is the probability of the study rejecting the null hypothesis ...