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The latest polling analysis from 538 gave Trump a 53-in-100 chance of winning the election versus 47 out of 100 for Kamala Harris. It also gave Republicans an 87-in-100 chance of taking the Senate ...
The UK election was the first time the FiveThirtyEight team did an election night 'liveblog' of a non-U.S. election. [538 37] In April 2010, The Guardian published Silver's predictions for the 2010 United Kingdom General Election. The majority of polling organisations in the UK use the concept of uniform swing to predict the outcome of elections.
Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
3.4.1 Predictions. 3.4.2 Results. ... 2022 538 [21] Solid R June 30, 2022 ... who was re-elected with 69.9% of the vote in 2020 and won re-election in 2022. Green's ...
The 2022 United States elections were held on November 8, 2022, with the exception of absentee balloting.During this U.S. midterm election, which occurred during the term of incumbent president Joe Biden of the Democratic Party, all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate were contested to determine the 118th United States Congress.
Looking at 538’s forecast, the most likely tipping-point state across all scenarios for the 2024 election is Pennsylvania. In 18 out of 100 cases, the Keystone State provides the winning ...
November 1, 2022 Inside Elections [12] Likely D November 3, 2022 Sabato's Crystal Ball [13] Likely D January 4, 2022 Politico [14] Lean D November 7, 2022 RCP [15] Lean D September 29, 2022 Fox News [16] Lean D October 25, 2022 DDHQ [17] Solid D November 3, 2022 538 [18] Likely D June 30, 2022 The Economist [19] Likely D September 28, 2022
March 31, 2022 Inside Elections [22] Tossup April 22, 2022 Sabato's Crystal Ball [23] Lean R November 7, 2022 Politico [24] Lean D (flip) November 3, 2022 RCP [25] Lean R June 9, 2022 Fox News [26] Lean R July 11, 2022 DDHQ [27] Tossup October 1, 2022 538 [28] Likely R June 30, 2022 The Economist [29] Tossup November 1, 2022