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All have the same trend, but more filtering leads to higher r 2 of fitted trend line. The least-squares fitting process produces a value, r-squared (r 2), which is 1 minus the ratio of the variance of the residuals to the variance of the dependent variable. It says what fraction of the variance of the data is explained by the fitted trend line.
In finance, a trend line is a bounding line for the price movement of a security. It is formed when a diagonal line can be drawn between a minimum of three or more price pivot points. A line can be drawn between any two points, but it does not qualify as a trend line until tested. Hence the need for the third point, the test.
A trend line could simply be drawn by eye through a set of data points, but more properly their position and slope is calculated using statistical techniques like linear regression. Trend lines typically are straight lines, although some variations use higher degree polynomials depending on the degree of curvature desired in the line.
Each data point adds to a line placed in the same panel as price. Interactions between price and the moving average generate bullish and bearish divergences that evaluate trend strength and direction.
A future market trend can only be determined in hindsight, since at any time prices in the future are not known. Past trends are identified by drawing lines, known as trendlines, that connect price action making higher highs and higher lows for an uptrend, or lower lows and lower highs for a downtrend.
Trend line breaks can be used to generate signals. Trend lines can be drawn connecting the peaks and troughs. From oversold levels, an advance above −100 and trend line breakout could be considered bullish. From overbought levels, a decline below +100 and a trend line break could be considered bearish.
Channel – a pair of parallel trend lines; Ichimoku kinko hyo – a moving average-based system that factors in time and the average point between a candle's high and low; Moving average – an average over a window of time before and after a given time point that is repeated at each time point in the given chart. A moving average can be ...
Another difference between the head and shoulders top and bottom is that the top formations are completed in a few weeks, whereas a major bottom (left, right shoulder or the head) usually takes longer, and as observed, may be prolonged for a period of several months or sometimes even more than a year.
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