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The overconfidence effect is a well-established bias in which a person's subjective confidence in their judgments is reliably greater than the objective accuracy of those judgments, especially when confidence is relatively high. [1] [2] Overconfidence is one example of a miscalibration of subjective probabilities.
[6] For example, the representativeness heuristic is defined as "The tendency to judge the frequency or likelihood" of an occurrence by the extent of which the event "resembles the typical case." [13] The "Linda Problem" illustrates the representativeness heuristic (Tversky & Kahneman, 1983 [14]). Participants were given a description of "Linda ...
Many behaviors of humans have been observed, investigated and named, and overconfidence is no exception. People who think a little too highly of themselves are known to experience overconfidence bias.
They argued that "the hard-easy effect has been interpreted with insufficient attention to the scale-end effects, the linear dependency, and the regression effects in data, and that the continued adherence to the idea of a 'cognitive overconfidence bias' is mediated by selective attention to particular data sets".
Overconfidence is a very serious problem, but you probably think it doesn't affect you. That's the tricky thing with overconfidence: The people who are most overconfident are the ones least likely ...
For example, in labeling another person as biased, one may also label their intentions cynically. But when examining one's own cognitions, people judge themselves based on their good intentions. It is likely that in this case, one may attribute another's bias to "intentional malice" rather than an unconscious process.
Why You Need to Do Your Research There are other takeaways from this study and others that can have a bearing on how you interpret professional advice and whether or not to act on it. For example:
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