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These values are used to calculate an E value for the estimate and a standard deviation (SD) as L-estimators, where: E = (a + 4m + b) / 6 SD = (b − a) / 6. E is a weighted average which takes into account both the most optimistic and most pessimistic estimates provided. SD measures the variability or uncertainty in the estimate.
The weighted sample mean, ¯, is itself a random variable. Its expected value and standard deviation are related to the expected values and standard deviations of the observations, as follows. For simplicity, we assume normalized weights (weights summing to one).
Stock A over the past 20 years had an average return of 10 percent, with a standard deviation of 20 percentage points (pp) and Stock B, over the same period, had average returns of 12 percent but a higher standard deviation of 30 pp. On the basis of risk and return, an investor may decide that Stock A is the safer choice, because Stock B's ...
This algorithm can easily be adapted to compute the variance of a finite population: simply divide by n instead of n − 1 on the last line.. Because SumSq and (Sum×Sum)/n can be very similar numbers, cancellation can lead to the precision of the result to be much less than the inherent precision of the floating-point arithmetic used to perform the computation.
It is a measure used to evaluate the performance of regression or forecasting models. It is a variant of MAPE in which the mean absolute percent errors is treated as a weighted arithmetic mean. Most commonly the absolute percent errors are weighted by the actuals (e.g. in case of sales forecasting, errors are weighted by sales volume). [3]
Since the probabilities must satisfy p 1 + ⋅⋅⋅ + p k = 1, it is natural to interpret E[X] as a weighted average of the x i values, with weights given by their probabilities p i. In the special case that all possible outcomes are equiprobable (that is, p 1 = ⋅⋅⋅ = p k), the weighted average is given by the standard average. In the ...
The mathematics of the distribution resulted from the authors' desire to make the standard deviation equal to about 1/6 of the range. [ 2 ] [ 3 ] The PERT distribution is widely used in risk analysis [ 4 ] to represent the uncertainty of the value of some quantity where one is relying on subjective estimates, because the three parameters ...
The standard deviation is the square root of the variance. When individual determinations of an age are not of equal significance, it is better to use a weighted mean to obtain an "average" age, as follows: x ¯ ∗ = ∑ i = 1 N w i x i ∑ i = 1 N w i . {\displaystyle {\overline {x}}^{*}={\frac {\sum _{i=1}^{N}w_{i}x_{i}}{\sum _{i=1}^{N}w_{i}}}.}