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The chain-ladder or development [1] method is a prominent [2] [3] actuarial loss reserving technique. The chain-ladder method is used in both the property and casualty [1] [4] and health insurance [5] fields. Its intent is to estimate incurred but not reported claims and project ultimate loss amounts. [5]
The number of claims N is a random variable, which is said to have a "claim number distribution", and which can take values 0, 1, 2, .... etc..For the "Panjer recursion", the probability distribution of N has to be a member of the Panjer class, otherwise known as the (a,b,0) class of distributions.
For fellows of the Casualty Actuarial Society, this is fulfilled by taking the nation-specific Exam 6-Canada, instead of Exam 6-United States. [29] Further, the CIA requires three years of actuarial practice within the previous decade, and 18 months of Canadian actuarial practice within the last three years, to become a fellow. [30]
In actuarial science and applied probability, ruin theory (sometimes risk theory [1] or collective risk theory) uses mathematical models to describe an insurer's vulnerability to insolvency/ruin. In such models key quantities of interest are the probability of ruin, distribution of surplus immediately prior to ruin and deficit at time of ruin.
Actuarial science became a formal mathematical discipline in the late 17th century with the increased demand for long-term insurance coverage such as burial, life insurance, and annuities. These long term coverages required that money be set aside to pay future benefits, such as annuity and death benefits many years into the future.
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