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The planning fallacy is a phenomenon in which predictions about how much time will be needed to complete a future task display an optimism bias and underestimate the time needed. This phenomenon sometimes occurs regardless of the individual's knowledge that past tasks of a similar nature have taken longer to complete than generally planned.
A comparison between predictions and sensory input yields a difference measure (e.g. prediction error, free energy, or surprise) which, if it is sufficiently large beyond the levels of expected statistical noise, will cause the internal model to update so that it better predicts sensory input in the future.
Because of this, the nature and evolution of foresight is an important topic in psychology. [1] Thinking about the future is studied under the label prospection. [2] Neuroscientific, developmental, and cognitive studies have identified many similarities to the human ability to recall past episodes. [3]
In The Theory of Moral Sentiments (1759), Adam Smith observed the personal challenges, and social benefits, of hedonic forecasting errors: [Consider t]he poor man's son, whom heaven in its anger has visited with ambition, when he begins to look around him, admires the condition of the rich …. and, in order to arrive at it, he devotes himself for ever to the pursuit of wealth and greatness….
Regulatory focus theory (RFT) is a theory of goal pursuit [1]: 444 formulated by Columbia University psychology professor and researcher E. Tory Higgins regarding people's motivations and perceptions in judgment and decision making processes.
In a 2011 article, Kahneman recounted the story of his discovery of the illusion of validity. After completing an undergraduate psychology degree and spending a year as an infantry officer in the Israeli Army, he was assigned to the army's Psychology Branch, where he helped evaluate candidates for officer training using a test called the Leaderless Group Challenge.
The first clinical prediction model reporting guidelines were published in 2015 (Transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis (TRIPOD)), and have since been updated. [10] Predictive modelling has been used to estimate surgery duration.
Predictive analytics, or predictive AI, encompasses a variety of statistical techniques from data mining, predictive modeling, and machine learning that analyze current and historical facts to make predictions about future or otherwise unknown events.