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The 2008 Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2, or UCERF2, is one of a series of earthquake forecasts prepared for the state California by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP), collaboration of the United States Geological Survey, the California Geological Survey, and the Southern California ...
Following destructive earthquakes in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, real estate developers, press, and boosters minimized and downplayed the risk of earthquakes out of fear that the ongoing economic boom would be negatively affected. [3] [4] California earthquakes (1769–2000)
In geology, the elastic-rebound theory is an explanation for how energy is released during an earthquake. As the Earth's crust deforms, the rocks which span the opposing sides of a fault are subjected to shear stress .
The 2015 Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3, or UCERF3, is the latest official earthquake rupture forecast (ERF) for the state of California, superseding UCERF2. It provides authoritative estimates of the likelihood and severity of potentially damaging earthquake ruptures in the long- and near-term.
Most earthquake clusters consist of small tremors that cause little to no damage, but there is a theory that earthquakes can recur in a regular pattern. [32] Earthquake clustering has been observed, for example, in Parkfield, California where a long-term research study is being conducted around the Parkfield earthquake cluster. [33]
Berkland's predictions have been either self-published in his newsletter or website, or announced in various interviews or speaking engagements. [8] His notoriety arose from an interview published in the Gilroy Dispatch on October 13, 1989, where he predicted that an earthquake with a magnitude between 3.5 and 6.0 would occur in the San Francisco Bay Area between October 14 and October 21. [9]
1898 Mare Island earthquake; 1899 San Jacinto earthquake; 1906 San Francisco earthquake; 1915 Imperial Valley earthquakes; 1918 San Jacinto earthquake; 1925 Santa Barbara earthquake; 1927 Lompoc earthquake; 1932 Eureka earthquake; 1933 Long Beach earthquake; 1940 El Centro earthquake; 1948 Desert Hot Springs earthquake; 1952 Kern County ...
In southern California about 6% of M≥3.0 earthquakes are "followed by an earthquake of larger magnitude within 5 days and 10 km." [12] In central Italy 9.5% of M≥3.0 earthquakes are followed by a larger event within 48 hours and 30 km. [13] While such statistics are not satisfactory for purposes of prediction (giving ten to twenty false ...