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After Harry F. Reid proposed the elastic-rebound theory in 1910 based on the surface rupture record from the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, and accumulated geodetic data demonstrated continual stress loading from the plate motion, a theory of the "cyclic" earthquake re-occurrence began to form in the late twentieth century.
In geology, the elastic-rebound theory is an explanation for how energy is released during an earthquake. As the Earth's crust deforms, the rocks which span the opposing sides of a fault are subjected to shear stress. Slowly they deform, until their internal rigidity is exceeded.
Seismology (/ s aɪ z ˈ m ɒ l ə dʒ i, s aɪ s-/; from Ancient Greek σεισμός (seismós) meaning "earthquake" and -λογία (-logía) meaning "study of") is the scientific study of earthquakes (or generally, quakes) and the generation and propagation of elastic waves through planetary bodies.
According to the elastic rebound theory of Reid (1910), eventually the deformation (strain) becomes great enough that something breaks, usually at an existing fault. Slippage along the break (an earthquake) allows the rock on each side to rebound to a less deformed state. In the process, energy is released in various forms, including seismic ...
Most earthquake clusters consist of small tremors that cause little to no damage, but there is a theory that earthquakes can recur in a regular pattern. [32] Earthquake clustering has been observed, for example, in Parkfield, California where a long-term research study is being conducted around the Parkfield earthquake cluster.
In southern California about 6% of M≥3.0 earthquakes are "followed by an earthquake of larger magnitude within 5 days and 10 km." [12] In central Italy 9.5% of M≥3.0 earthquakes are followed by a larger event within 48 hours and 30 km. [13] While such statistics are not satisfactory for purposes of prediction (giving ten to twenty false ...
Bailey Willis (March 31, 1857 in Idle Wild-on-Hudson, New York, United States – February 19, 1949 in Palo Alto, California) was a geological engineer who worked for the United States Geological Survey (USGS), and lectured at two prominent American universities.
Berkland's predictions have been either self-published in his newsletter or website, or announced in various interviews or speaking engagements. [8] His notoriety arose from an interview published in the Gilroy Dispatch on October 13, 1989, where he predicted that an earthquake with a magnitude between 3.5 and 6.0 would occur in the San Francisco Bay Area between October 14 and October 21. [9]