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SPM is derived from the compound interest formula via the present value of a perpetuity equation. The derivation requires the additional variables X {\displaystyle X} and R {\displaystyle R} , where X {\displaystyle X} is a company's retained earnings, and R {\displaystyle R} is a company's rate of return on equity.
In financial economics, the dividend discount model (DDM) is a method of valuing the price of a company's capital stock or business value based on the assertion that intrinsic value is determined by the sum of future cash flows from dividend payments to shareholders, discounted back to their present value.
MedICT has chosen the perpetuity growth model to calculate the value of cash flows beyond the forecast period. They estimate that they will grow at about 6% for the rest of these years (this is extremely prudent given that they grew by 78% in year 5), and they assume a forward discount rate of 15% for beyond year 5. The terminal value is hence:
The Perpetuity Growth Model accounts for the value of free cash flows that continue growing at an assumed constant rate in perpetuity. Here, the projected free cash flow in the first year beyond the projection horizon (N+1) is used. This value is then divided by the discount rate minus the assumed perpetuity growth rate:
Using the residual income approach, the value of a company's stock can be calculated as the sum of its book value today (i.e. at time ) and the present value of its expected future residual income, discounted at the cost of equity, , resulting in the general formula:
The present value of a perpetuity can be calculated by taking the limit of the above formula as n approaches infinity. =. Formula (2) can also be found by subtracting from (1) the present value of a perpetuity delayed n periods, or directly by summing the present value of the payments
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If the cash flow stream is assumed to continue indefinitely, the finite forecast is usually combined with the assumption of constant cash flow growth beyond the discrete projection period. The total value of such cash flow stream is the sum of the finite discounted cash flow forecast and the Terminal value (finance) .