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Gibbs sampling is named after the physicist Josiah Willard Gibbs, in reference to an analogy between the sampling algorithm and statistical physics.The algorithm was described by brothers Stuart and Donald Geman in 1984, some eight decades after the death of Gibbs, [1] and became popularized in the statistics community for calculating marginal probability distribution, especially the posterior ...
In Bayesian statistics, the posterior predictive distribution is the distribution of possible unobserved values conditional on the observed values. [1] [2]Given a set of N i.i.d. observations = {, …,}, a new value ~ will be drawn from a distribution that depends on a parameter , where is the parameter space.
In the former purpose (that of approximating a posterior probability), variational Bayes is an alternative to Monte Carlo sampling methods—particularly, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods such as Gibbs sampling—for taking a fully Bayesian approach to statistical inference over complex distributions that are difficult to evaluate directly or ...
The maximum a posteriori, which is the mode of the posterior and is often computed in Bayesian statistics using mathematical optimization methods, remains the same. The posterior can be approximated even without computing the exact value of P ( B ) {\displaystyle P(B)} with methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo or variational Bayesian methods .
In contrast, Bayesian posterior expectations are invariant under reparameterization. As an example of the difference between Bayes estimators mentioned above (mean and median estimators) and using a MAP estimate, consider the case where there is a need to classify inputs x {\displaystyle x} as either positive or negative (for example, loans as ...
Posterior probability is a conditional probability conditioned on randomly observed data. Hence it is a random variable. For a random variable, it is important to summarize its amount of uncertainty. One way to achieve this goal is to provide a credible interval of the posterior probability. [11]
Bayesian linear regression is a type of conditional modeling in which the mean of one variable is described by a linear combination of other variables, with the goal of obtaining the posterior probability of the regression coefficients (as well as other parameters describing the distribution of the regressand) and ultimately allowing the out-of-sample prediction of the regressand (often ...
Minimizing the Gibbs free energy provides approximatively the posterior mean field (|) = (|), whereas minimizing the information Hamiltonian provides the maximum a posteriori field. As the latter is known to over-fit noise, the former is usually a better field estimator.