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Pythagorean expectation is a sports analytics formula devised by Bill James to estimate the percentage of games a baseball team "should" have won based on the number of runs they scored and allowed. Comparing a team's actual and Pythagorean winning percentage can be used to make predictions and evaluate which teams are over-performing and under ...
The resulting percentage is often compared to a team's true winning percentage, and a team is said to have "overachieved" or "underachieved" compared to the Pythagorean expectation. For example, Bill Barnwell calculated that before week 9 of the 2014 NFL season, the Arizona Cardinals had a Pythagorean record two wins lower than their real ...
American football win probability estimates often include whether a team is home or away, the down and distance, score difference, time remaining, and field position ...
Super Bowl Squares are the second most popular office sports betting tradition in the United States (No. 1: March Madness brackets), maybe because the outcome is based entirely on luck. Here's how ...
Per Pro Football Reference’s calculations, the Vikings’ actual winning percentage (.765) surpassed their expected one (.494) by more than that of any other team to reach that level, which ...
Log5 is a method of estimating the probability that team A will win a game against team B, based on the odds ratio between the estimated winning probability of Team A and Team B against a larger set of teams.
Astrologers and tarot readers predict the big football game. This year's Super Bowl is another rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles. The last time the two teams faced ...
Advanced Football Analytics uses its win probability model to analyze strategic coaching decisions such as whether to kick or attempt first down conversions. Research topics include game theory applications, luck and randomness, [ 9 ] play calling, home field advantage, run-pass balance, and the relative importance of various facets of ...